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Making GG weekly politics-free again!
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gamingeek
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Joined: 2008-06-21
Mon, 05 Oct 2020 14:49:38
#281
He went for a joyride. Hope the driver didn't get it.
That part is infuriating. Putting his secret service at risk for a victory lap?
Saw a video that said he knew he had Covid when he went to that event. And threw covid caps into the non-masked audience?
Saw that earlier today. So funny. Weird seeing the audience free chat show monologues. Not funny in silence. BTW am I the only one who doesn't find Jimmy Fallon funny?
I saw that last night. 
Between the pink eye and the fly, I'm convinced he's a zombie. He was killed by COVID months ago.
Awesome Newman ad.
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Tell me to get back to rewriting this site so it's not horrible on mobile
So, any last predictions?
I know the whole world is pretty convinced that Biden's going to win and rid us from Trump as he's seen as a liability on the top level of world politics. But I can imagine a lot of people seeing past his bullish appearance and being pretty content by what he has done for them over the last 4 years.
So yeah, no prediction here. 
I want to believe. I guess I'll remain cautiously optimistic.
If the whole world is pretty convinced, then everyone else is much more optimistic than people in this country. There's so much BS going around this election that it's hard to feel good about it. We've never had a president who has been talking about challenging the results months in advance of the election even happening. Hard to feel like things are going to go smoothly.
Yeah, it's straight out of his 2016 playbook. Claim the election is rigged in case he loses.
Concretely a major difference from 2016 is there are far fewer undecided voters and no last minute surprises from the Comey gang. While it's the state-by-state that matters, the Biden is up 8.5 nationally while the race had narrowed in 2016 to under 3 points this time in 2016. Biden's also clearing the 50% magic number in the states he needs to take the election, and voter motivation is massively up compared to perhaps slightly depressed despite decent turnout in 2016.
I made this map a few days ago, so not sure if the numbers are exactly the same but there's been no major change.
This is the map if you give Trump every state where he has any lead at all, and you give Biden only states that 538 a 90%+ chance of winning (which varies by state, but is generally around an 8 point lead or more).
So every grey state is either even or Biden leading. It basically means if the map looks like this on election night, which is pretty reasonable, Trump would need to sweep every single one of these states he's behind in to get to 270.
Everything looks about as good as it can. My concern is election fraud and court chicanery. Everything Republicans say is projection, and there's few things they yell about as much as voter fraud.
I made this map a few days ago, so not sure if the numbers are exactly the same but there's been no major change.
This is the map if you give Trump every state where he has any lead at all, and you give Biden only states that 538 a 90%+ chance of winning (which varies by state, but is generally around an 8 point lead or more).
So every grey state is either even or Biden leading. It basically means if the map looks like this on election night, which is pretty reasonable, Trump would need to sweep every single one of these states he's behind in to get to 270.
Everything looks about as good as it can. My concern is election fraud and court chicanery. Everything Republicans say is projection, and there's few things they yell about as much as voter fraud.
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Tell me to get back to rewriting this site so it's not horrible on mobileElection night tips!
First up, even moreso than other years, don't get too concerned about initial reports of ballots coming in. Early votes are skewed pretty heavily Democratic, and in-person election day voting will likely skew heavily Republican. It varies depending on the state whether early votes are reported first, election day votes are reported first, or if they're intermingled. So plenty of states will look like a big lead one direction, then slowly even out.
Next, plenty of states won't have complete results on election night, so it could be a few days, even a week or more before the election can be called.
What to look for!
On election night Florida should have results pretty quickly. If Biden wins Florida, it's over.
Nebraska's 2nd district and Maine's 2nd district should also be fairly quick. If Biden wins both, 538 gives him a >99% chance of winning, so that's also crushing. But ignoring their model for a second, each district gives 1 electoral vote. In my above map, Biden needs 12. +1 from one of those districts +11 from AZ will get him there, so winning either opens another path to close things out.
North Carolina may not have complete results by the end of the night, but may be able to be called on election night. If Biden wins NC, it's pretty much over as well.
The state to not worry too much about is Pennsylvania. It doesn't start counting mail-in ballots until 7am on election day and will not be done in time, so it'll take most of the week or more to get enough results to say who's winning. This also means it'll start very red and narrow as mail-in votes are included.
First up, even moreso than other years, don't get too concerned about initial reports of ballots coming in. Early votes are skewed pretty heavily Democratic, and in-person election day voting will likely skew heavily Republican. It varies depending on the state whether early votes are reported first, election day votes are reported first, or if they're intermingled. So plenty of states will look like a big lead one direction, then slowly even out.
Next, plenty of states won't have complete results on election night, so it could be a few days, even a week or more before the election can be called.
What to look for!
On election night Florida should have results pretty quickly. If Biden wins Florida, it's over.
Nebraska's 2nd district and Maine's 2nd district should also be fairly quick. If Biden wins both, 538 gives him a >99% chance of winning, so that's also crushing. But ignoring their model for a second, each district gives 1 electoral vote. In my above map, Biden needs 12. +1 from one of those districts +11 from AZ will get him there, so winning either opens another path to close things out.
North Carolina may not have complete results by the end of the night, but may be able to be called on election night. If Biden wins NC, it's pretty much over as well.
The state to not worry too much about is Pennsylvania. It doesn't start counting mail-in ballots until 7am on election day and will not be done in time, so it'll take most of the week or more to get enough results to say who's winning. This also means it'll start very red and narrow as mail-in votes are included.
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Tell me to get back to rewriting this site so it's not horrible on mobileGood tips. I love high high voter turnout has been so far. Btw, who do you guys go to for polling info? 538 seems to be the gold standard as far as I can tell.
Edited: Sun, 01 Nov 2020 16:02:04
I'm all about 538 because the only thing that matters are polling averages and they make that very easy to navigate and view. How well they interpret those averages is debatable, but you definitely don't want to be looking at random singular polls. 270toWin also has aggregate polls -- I like their site for customizing election maps. I've also used realclearpolitics for looking up polls for specific races.
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Tell me to get back to rewriting this site so it's not horrible on mobile
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